What’s in store for 2015

When it comes to predicting anything economy related its at best an educated guess. Trying to work out what will happen in China is even more challenging,

The brave economists are saying that growth will be slower but better. I guess that means more organized, manageable and structured. Having now lived in China for 3 years, I think making business more organized is somewhat of a challenge. On a Wednesday my diary is often completely clear for the next week. But the reality is back to back meetings just like in London or New York. The main difference being they are almost always spontaneous and urgent, a friend of mine talks about ‘the Chinese Fire Drill’, all last minute. To us Westerners used to planning weeks ahead via a diary, it makes for a somewhat frustrating and very different way of working. Professor Paul Gillis, of Guanghua School of Management at Peking University in Beijing, observed to me recently that it is currently unproven that this approach adds significant flexibility and so agility to the Chinese business approach, or perpetuates inefficiency. Chinese friends refer to the last 30 years of explosive growth and suggest that it hasn’t done any harm! How much more could have been done with a bit of planning is an interesting debate.

The economist are predicting that more inefficient SOEs will be dismantled and that private enterprises will create most new jobs and be responsible for most wealth creation. This may well mean an increasing number of foreign enterprises taking an increasingly large share of the Chinese market.

Of course, these economists are only expressing an opinion. I am more intrigued to see if the Chinese Fire Drill approach will ever change or should I just throw my diary in the bin forever?